Simulation of the COVID-19 handling policy in Indonesia

Erman Aminullah; Erwiza Erman; Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo

doi:10.4081/jphia.2023.2233

Authors

Erman Aminullah
aminullahe@yahoo.com
Research Center for Industrial, Service and Trade Economics, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Erwiza Erman Research Center for Area Studies, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo School of Environmental Studies, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Background. This study’s background was inspired by the current COVID-19 handling policy, which focuses on the balance of public health and social economy. However, there is a knowledge gap on the dynamic complexity of balancing public health and social economy during the new normal period of COVID-19 handling policy. A system dynamics simulation of the COVID-19 handling policy could be used to understand that gap.
Objective. This study aims to uncover the simulation of the COVID-19 handling policy in Indonesia.
Methods. This study combined quantitative and qualitative modeling methods with a system dynamics tool.
Results. This study revealed 3 elements in the dynamic balance of public health and social economy in the COVID handling policy system: i) COVID-19 and social-economic control; ii) COVID-19 escalation and de-escalation; iii) people’s immunity enhancement. Such a mix of COVID-19-controlling policy instruments has maintained a dynamic equilibrium between easing economic suppression at the expense of worsening COVID-19 and tightening public health resolution at the expense of more economic suppression.
Conclusions. The study conclusions are as follows: i) the COVID-19 handling policy worked as a leverage factor in balancing public health resolution and economic interest during the new normal period in Indonesia; ii) experiential creativity to respond to the newly serious public health problems triggered by COVID-19 implies adding public health knowledge; iii) the study’s outcomes imply re-examining the strengths and deficiencies of the entire health system for a better health system.

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Aminullah, E., Erman, E., & Soesilo, T. E. B. (2023). Simulation of the COVID-19 handling policy in Indonesia. Journal of Public Health in Africa, 14(5). https://doi.org/10.4081/jphia.2023.2233